In the past 24 hours

Both the commodity bloc and the Japanese yen have been big movers these past few weeks; and the efforts to develop new trends with probing breakouts between the two seems to be underway. In the past 24 hours, both AUDJPY and CADJPY have marked meaningful breaks above resistance on well-worn congestion patterns. And, while there are follow boundaries ahead (CADJPY in a channel top and AUDJPY in a swing high from last month), there is renewed momentum that could ultimately develop this trend or allow for a volatile reversal rather than turning once again to confining chop. Jumping in on these pairs now would be dangerous because it is unclear whether we can sustain these new trends. Instead, we have an opportunity with NZDJPY - the commodity-yen cross that hasn't produced its own break.

This typically volatile pair is still working its way deeper into a terminal wedge. Resistance is defined by the long-term 50 percent Fib retracement of the February 2008 to February 2009 bear wave and September swing high around 66.25/35. Pressure is coming from support founded in the rising trend of lows beginning in late February and now falling around 64.25. On its own, this pair would eventually produce a break; but its Aussie and loonie peers can offer the impetus to catalyze the ultimate move - and more importantly, it can project the move for us. I will look to AUDJPY and CADJPY to develop a true trend (bullish or bearish) and look for NZDJPY to fall in line. A confirmed move above 66.25 or below 63 will be levels for entry.