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Thursday, October 8, 2009

Trichet will once again hold his public address 45 minutes after the initial announcement and answer reporters’ questions.


The ECB’s rate decision is actually scheduled for release some 45 minutes after its English counterpart’s (at 11:45 GMT); but it has the more drawn out impact on the markets. The initial announcement has not held any surprises since May when the group last lowered the benchmark lending rate to its currency 1.00 percent. However, the event doesn’t end with a hike / no hike decision. Central bank President Jean Claude Trichet will once again hold his public address 45 minutes after the initial announcement and answer reporters’ questions.

Right off the bat, economists are unanimous in their expectations for rates to be held at its current record low level. Markets expect much the same with Credit Suisse overnight index swaps pricing in no probability of a change. The market will instead have to get its actionable content from the statement and Q&A to follow.

In recent weeks and months, Trichet has been adamant in his warnings that the economic recovery is the primary concern with monetary policy and the target rate will likely be kept at low levels until next year. For speculators that are used to the same warning from across the globe, the real interest is in the timing as to when rates will once again be lifted and how aggressively policy will be tightened from there. Actions speak louder than words and calling an end to the unlimited fund auctions to banks recently is a clear first step at reining in stimulus. There are a few more steps before pre-emptive hikes can be considered; but the positive growth measured in German and France through the second quarter along with Australia’s move to a hawkish stance put the ECB under the magnifying glass as they are expected to be the next likely candidate to take up the inevitable.

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